Originally Posted by elp_jc
It's high-school math man. Buy an 'extended warranty' if that makes you happy, but the overwhelming odds are you'd lose money. Do a little bit of research and you'll find out how much profit is built into those contracts
. Dealers/salesmen push them like hell for a reason.
Again, I've saved tens of thousands of dollars by NEVER paying for that crap (cars, motorcycles, electronics, appliances, etc), so even with a catastrophic failure, I'd be WELL AHEAD of the numbers game... which at my 49, still stands at ZERO
(knock on wood). It's all about the odds
. Only instance it wouldn't make sense to 'gamble' is if you're broke... but if that was the case, you shouldn't be driving an M3 to begin with
. Good luck.
First off, there is profit built into everything, even non-profits.
Second, when rolling the dice, one must decide what they are playing against. BMW, DCT, M3, s65 all sound like very expensive items to repair (IMHO) - why would I not pay a measly 3-4k, to avoid potentially spending 15k.
FACT: You can't tell me what a DCT replacement will cost in 2+ years. What are the odds of DCT failing? We don't know yet, or the S65 internals failing? We don't know yet, so I don't think you can bank on the M3 being solid in the long run (50k+)...just yet.
When there is risk and uncertainty everyone must assess their personal position. Whether it is a TV, Sofa, Watch, or whatever, not all instances require or need a warranty, some do.
I would not reccommend an extended warranty for the average M3 owner, since they switch cars every 2-4 years, but I wouldn't go around telling people insurance or warranties are sucker's bet. They are a safe bet, higher the risk, more the return - some of us are risk averse.
Also, I've had two cars totaled and over 35k paid out to me in insurance money, can you imagine if I did not have insurance, what kind of sucker I would be?
It's good that you have been lucky, but as you've said it's odds and probability, so your day is coming